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Policy factors and economic recovery affect the medium-term trend of oil price

there are many reasons for the sharp fluctuation of oil price, but there will be one or several leading factors in different periods, which will become the key factors affecting the medium-term trend of oil price. The author believes that policy factors and the actual economic recovery are the leading factors of the medium-term trend of oil price in the next twoorthree months

fiscal policy: if the second round of economic stimulus plan is introduced, it will undoubtedly support the crude oil market, but at present, it is unlikely to implement the second round of stimulus plan. U.S. Labor Secretary Solis told the media that although the economic situation is still very serious, it is "too early" to propose a second economic stimulus plan

monetary policy: whether the monetary policy of the United States is loose, whether the interest rate changes or not, and whether the monetary policy of the European Union changes will affect the change of the dollar index, which will have a great direct impact on the entire financial market and a huge impact on oil prices. Under the current situation, it is estimated that the U.S. monetary policy, especially the interest rate policy, will not change significantly in the short term, which is an ideal test equipment for users

regulatory policy of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC): CFTC chairman kingsler announced on the 7th that the government will hold a series of hearings in the next two months to discuss whether and how to impose restrictions on speculative trading in oil, natural gas and other energy markets. Before the hearing determines whether to adopt measures to crack down on policies, speculation in the market will certainly converge, so that it will be difficult for oil prices to rise sharply. It is the improvement of cars, machines and automatic equipment, and the optimization of material power, unless there is special good news to stimulate

U.S. Department of energy policy: in the past five weeks, the strategic crude oil reserve has increased in three weeks, but the increase has been greatly reduced. The inventory has not changed in one week, while the strategic crude oil reserve has decreased in the recent week. Although only 1000 barrels were reduced, this is the first signal of less reserves in half a year, which may indicate that the strategic crude oil reserves will not be increased in the future, at least not by a large margin, which is bad for the crude oil futures market. In fact, as a widely concerned fund position in the crude oil futures market, it changes with the change of strategic crude oil reserves. In the week after the increase of strategic crude oil reserves in the past five weeks and three weeks, the net excess orders of the fund are increased, while the week when the strategic crude oil reserves have not changed and the feedback data value of the minus sensor can form a straight-line week, and then the net excess orders of the fund positions announced are significantly reduced by about 20000 hands

the energy policy of the Obama administration: Although the Obama energy bill was finally passed by the house of representatives with 219 votes to 212 votes on June 26, it still needs to obtain a difficult 60 votes in the Senate, that is, a "super majority", and it is still unknown whether this energy and climate change legislation can be passed

let's look at the actual economic recovery: the rise in oil prices in the first half of this year and the recovery of global stock markets are to a considerable extent due to speculation expectations. It is expected that the economy will recover significantly after the economic stimulus plan. However, except for China and a few emerging market countries, the economy of developed countries has not recovered significantly, but the speed of economic recession has slowed down. Therefore, the gap between overly optimistic expectations and reality led to the decline of crude oil prices

at the same time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released the 2009 Interim oil market report, which is a more pessimistic report, and this is the most important news in the minds of most market participants. In the report, the IEA said that the institution "encountered a very different economic situation from the 2008 Summer Edition when the surface Rockwell hardness was 0.001mm." the financial and economic collapse has led to a decline in world oil consumption to a level not seen since the early 1980s. On the 8th, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that due to the weak economy and weak demand, it may take several years for global oil demand to recover from the decline in 2009

whether from the policy level or the actual recovery of the world economy, in the medium term, the crude oil futures market will be affected by various policy restrictions and sluggish actual demand, which will restrict the price to continue to rise. Under the premise of unclear policies, speculative funds may be deterred, and the downturn in actual consumption and the continuous increase in inventories will inhibit the sharp rise in oil prices

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