Policy "bottoming out" real estate ushers in the adjustment buffer period
policy "bottoming out" real estate ushers in the adjustment buffer period
October 13, 2014
[China paint information] affected by the dual effects of the "purchase restriction" solution hr30n and the credit relaxation policy, the transactions in each "release" city have rebounded slightly, and the expectations and mentality of both buyers and sellers are changing. Professionals said that as the property market regulation policy "bottomed out", the property market that had continued "downward" may enter a "buffer period"
changes in mentality promote the rebound in transactions
the National Day golden week has not been the peak of property market transactions, but the "new housing loan policy" issued by the central bank and the CBRC before the holiday has led many people to add a new "vacation" project - "house viewing". "Originally, I planned to fight with my family to let China see that it has been far abandoned by modernization. My friends formed a" self driving tour group ", which turned out to be a" house viewing group ", seeing five suites in one day." Hangzhou citizen Mr. Kong said. According to the statistics of the transparent housing market research institute, a total of 804 new houses were signed in Hangzhou during the golden week, the highest in the same period in recent four years
Jinan, the capital of Shandong Province, as a second tier city, saw a rebound in the number of commercial housing transactions on October 8 and 9 after the national day, 241 and 224 respectively
in addition to the slight rebound in actual transactions, the number of real estate visits has increased significantly, which shows the changes brought about by the new housing loan policy. Hohhot is the first provincial capital city in China to publicly cancel the purchase restriction. Although only 141 first-hand commercial houses were signed in the urban area of Hohhot during the week from September 29 to October 5, compared with the flat transaction, the sales department was crowded. Yanghaifeng, marketing director of Nanning Zhonghai real estate, also introduced that the Evergrande oasis property developed by Evergrande group in Nanning had sales of 800million yuan within two hours of its opening on October 7
in Hangzhou, Jinan, Wuhan, Nanjing, Chengdu and other places, affected by the "new housing loan policy", the number of house watchers in the golden week has increased significantly. The sales manager of a real estate said, "I haven't seen such a lively scene for a long time" and "consumer confidence has been significantly improved"
although the implementation details of the "new housing loan policy" remain to be clarified, the mentality of some home buyers has begun to change. Due to the precedent of "stimulating" the real estate market in the past, some property buyers are afraid of "missing a good opportunity" and speed up the pace of placing orders. Some property buyers are worried that "copying the bottom and copying the substrate of BVB subrange on the hillside can be used to form planting plugs and breeding blocks to support the plant growth cycle at different stages". They are still looking at the wind direction and other details, but in general, people in the industry say that the mentality of property buyers to enter the market and sell is stronger
policy bottoms out and the property market turns to
although the specific rules of the banks on the "new housing loan policy" have yet to be issued, most developers and home buyers believe that the current property market boosting policy has "bottomed out", and house prices and transactions are likely to gradually "stop falling and stabilize". However, some people believe that "all good things are bad". If the "new housing loan policy" is discounted, the decline of the property market may continue
Professor Li Tiegang, director of the real estate research center of Shandong University, believes that the loosening of the loan restriction policy of the central bank and the CBRC has a certain positive effect on the whole real estate market, but at present, the overall capital is still relatively tight. Financial institutions are relatively cautious for risk control, and near the end of the year, so it is unknown whether they will follow up and adjust their specific credit policies soonGan Li, director of the China Household Finance Survey and Research Center at Southwestern University of Finance and economics, also said that according to the static estimation of the data of the China Household Finance Survey, the new housing loan policy of the central bank will stimulate the early release of the demand for about 5.5 million housing units in the short term. However, for the existing 50million vacant houses and 4million houses for sale in cities and towns, it is a drop in the bucket. He believes that whether the new deal can really work depends on whether the market's expectations of house prices will change
although the "new housing loan policy" has been issued, the debate on the trend of the property market has never stopped. Wan Zhi, a researcher in the real estate industry of Anxin securities, believes that the "loan or house" mainly stimulates the improvement demand and some investment demand. However, because the inventory of commercial housing is still at a high level at present, there will be at least two to three quarters of inventory digestion period in the future, the strategy of real estate enterprises is still to speed up the weekly conversion and focus on price for quantity
usher in the adjustment "buffer period"
"and other rules" has become the most ardent expectation of the whole society for the property market at present. Analysts pointed out that if the mortgage interest rate has a discount of 85% or less, the property market transaction will rise steadily. If the interest rate discount is less, property buyers may expect a more substantial "market rescue" policy, and will wait and see, waiting to pull down the transaction. Therefore, the specific implementation of the "new housing loan policy" will have an important impact on the subsequent trend of the property market
"at present, the policy orientation of the real estate market has changed from restriction to gradual relaxation, and the purchase and loan restrictions have been gradually relaxed, while other restrictive policies have slowed down as a whole." Le Jiadong, a researcher at GF Securities, said. In this case, the market will become the main force affecting the property market. The down payment ratio and interest rate level in the "new housing loan deal" will be decided by commercial banks independently. Whether they "awesome" or not depends on the "face" of banks
although the specific rules of the banks on the "new housing loan policy" have yet to be issued, most developers and home buyers believe that the current property market promotion policy has "bottomed out", and house prices and transactions are likely to gradually "stop falling and stabilize". However, some people believe that "all good things are bad". If the "new housing loan policy" is discounted, the decline of the property market may continue